The Geiger Doctrine
“We didn’t start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world was turning
We didn’t start the fire
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it”
Billy Joel, “We Didn’t Start the Fire” (1989)
Like time, Mother Nature, and Donald Trump’s hair, there are certain forces within the universe that remind us of how powerless and silly the human race can be. This practical denouement crossed my mind this morning while I read about Twitter’s decision to lay off 8% of its staff. You mean technology companies don’t always grow to the sky? How can that not be? Software engineers all over Silicon Valley must be crying in their double-shot caramel lattes. Soon every Millennial in San Francisco will point and stare at surviving Twitter employees, easy to spot as they sulk to their offices on Market Street with scarlet “T’s” plastered on their chests, crestfallen from the realization that they will actually have to pay for their own lunches. Oh, the pain.
The foolishness of pontifical statements like “this time it’s different” hits home too often. Technologies evolve, stock markets fall, and beachfront mansions get swept out to sea when a hurricane rolls through town. People smarter than me attribute this to the natural laws of physics, Darwin’s survival of the fittest, or Disney’s circle of life. I’m not that smart. I rely simply on The Geiger Doctrine: Stuff happens because it always happens.
Take Congress, for instance.
In the early-1920s, the Republican Party was fractured with ideological conflicts, as progressive members from the Midwest often locked horns with the conservative Old Guard. Progressive Republicans sought a liberalization of House rules, so that progressive legislation that was languishing in committees dominated by Republican “regulars” could be brought to the floor. The Republican leadership, comprised of regulars, refused. In response, in 1923, progressive Republicans refused to support the Republican Conference nominee for Speaker of the House, Frederick Gillett of Massachusetts.
Because the progressives were numerous enough to represent a pivotal coalition between regular Republicans and Democrats, the strategy worked. Twenty progressive Republicans scattered their votes, which led to 8 inconclusive (deadlocked) speakership ballots over 2 days. Finally, the Republican leadership caved and met the progressives’ demands, and the progressives swung their votes to Gillett on the ninth ballot and elected him. Two years later, after the regular Republicans added enough members to constitute a majority of the chamber, the Republican leadership, led by new Speaker Nicholas Longworth of Ohio, punished the progressives by removing them from important committees and/or stripping them of their chairmanships and committee seniority. In time, the progressives were chastened and welcomed back into the fold, but only after agreeing to support the Republican Conference choice for Speaker.
Could 2015 end up resembling 1923? Who knows? But I’m sure this time it’s different.
And while we’re on the topic of history repeating itself, what do you think would happen if next week the Chicago Cubs played the New York Mets for the National League pennant? In October of 1969, I was a broken-hearted 10-year old die-hard Cubs fan who witnessed the Miracle Mets steamroll my heroes (Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, Fergie Jenkins, Ron Santo, et.al.) on their way to a World Series title. No way in Wrigleyville that would that happen today.
You know why? Because this time it’s different.